Analysis of data in the selective confinements of Madrid
Is it true that confined areas correspond to the neighbourhoods with the highest rates of poverty and immigration?
To answer this question, we have analyzed the most discriminating sociodemographic characteristics of the restricted areas compared to the non-confined ones as of September 28. We seek to discover which variables are most related to the high incidence of COVID, at least in the case of the municipality of Madrid.
Without a doubt, correlation does not imply causation, but it can help us a lot to understand what is happening. In the health field, little can known about the specific origin of a disease beyond symptoms and risk factors, such as smoking and lung cancer.
This article details the 21 districts of the municipality of Madrid and their health zones. To carry out the study, indicators from different fields have considered: economics, health, investment, etc. The Madrid City Council has provided the needles used at the district level. It has been assumed that there are restrictions in these districts if the restricted health areas are totally or partially contained in them, and the correlation that they have in the 14-day accumulated COVID incidence rate has studied, being aware of the small sample size. The most representative sociodemographic indicators would be:
- Population Structure: Proportion of immigrants
- Economic Indicators: Average annual household income
- Economic Indicators: Average monthly pension (Men / Women)
- Habits and Lifestyles: Sedentary lifestyle, Obesity
- Education: Educational level of the population over 25 years of age
- Unemployment: Unemployed who do not receive any financial benefit
- Housing: Average housing area (m2)
- Local election results
1. Population Structure: Proportion of immigrants
Within the eight districts to which the restricted health zones belong, 5 have a higher-than-average proportion of immigrants (9.2%). The districts of Usera, Carabanchel, Villaverde and Puente de Vallecas stand out, in the ratio of foreigners concerning the district’s total population exceeds 14%.
2. Economic Indicators: Average annual household income
The districts with the lowest average yearly net income per household have a cumulative rate of COVID greater than 800 cases per 100,000 inhabitants.
The districts of Puente de Vallecas, Usera and Villaverde stand out, with more than 1,000 cases.
3. Economic Indicators: Average monthly pension (Men / Women)
Considering the 21 districts analyzed, the average retirement for men is around €1,480 compared to €960 for women. In both cases, the accumulated COVID rate has a higher incidence in those districts where these limits are not exceeded.
As seen in the following two graphs, the areas with the highest incidence of the disease are inhabited by a population with an average pension of 34% lower (in the case of men) and 37% (in the case of women). women) compared to the maximum average pension.
4. Habits and Lifestyles: Sedentary lifestyle, Obesity
Various habits and lifestyles are currently significantly affecting the incidence of COVID.
Both Obesity and a sedentary lifestyle have a notable effect.
As can be seen, from 30% of the population with a sedentary lifestyle, the cumulative incidence rate begins to rise until it reaches 1,186 cases in the Puente de Vallecas district with a % sedentary lifestyle of 38%.
The same occurs with Obesity; the % of people with Obesity is higher in the districts of Carabanchel, Villaverde and Puente de Vallecas, with a COVID incidence of between 1,000 and 1,185 people per 100,000 inhabitants.
5. Education: Educational level of the population over 25 years of age
As we can see in both graphs that show the incidence of the virus based on the educational level of the population over 25 years of age, it is observed that the incidence is higher in those districts where the academic level of the population low or almost nil.
The inverse behaviour detected in the following graph, given the negative correlation with the category of the variable:
6. Unemployment: Unemployed who do not receive any financial benefit
Another indicator that has a high impact on the incidence rate is the number of unemployed who did not receive any financial benefit as of February 2020. In turn, this percentage of unemployed has a high correlation with the educational level variable (Without studies or incomplete primary).
In this situation, all districts with partial or total restrictions have more than 50% unemployed. Villaverde and Vicálvaro stand out with 63%, Villa de Vallecas with 62%, and Puente de Vallecas and Usera with 61%, reflecting COVID incidence rates of more than 800 cases per 100,000 inhabitants.
7. Housing: Average housing area (m2)
The districts in which dwellings with an average surface area of fewer than 80 m2 predominate have a high incidence of COVID (more than 800 cases per 100,000 inhabitants). The districts of Puente de Vallecas and Carabanchel must be highlighted, in which the dwellings less than or equal to 70 m2, and many cases are reported. It can assumed that the less housing surface, the greater the difficulty of confinement and isolation in families with several members, and the greater possibility of contagion.
8. Results of local elections
The districts with the lowest accumulated COVID incidence at 14 days have a higher percentage of PP and VOX voters.
The districts where the votes for political forces with leftist ideologies predominate (PSOE and Más Madrid) have a higher 14-day accumulated COVID RATE.
conclusions
As we mentioned at the beginning of the study, correlation does not imply causation. This means that a high correlation between the COVID rate and the level of studies does not mean that if the Spanish population drops out of primary school, Spain will have a higher COVID rate.
This study characterizes the areas with the highest incidence of COVID: areas with lower incomes, smaller housing surfaces, and less educational training than other districts in general.
Of those studied, some variables strongly relate to the incidence of the accumulated COVID rate at 14 days. In order of most significant relationship, they would be:
- Immigration rate
- educational level
- Rent
- Average housing area
Observing these fields, it could assessed whether other factors related to these variables have proven to directly affect a greater probability of contagion, such as the primary form of mobility in the municipality, or if they perform jobs that difficult to do. Keeping a safe distance or remotely.
Methodology
To study the characteristics of the health areas with restrictions of each essential health area, we base ourselves on the different districts in which they included. However, the reference to averages in any comment refers to the resulting par with the 21 communities that make up the municipality of Madrid (28079). In some cases, such as in the budget information section, only 19 of the 21 districts referred to due to the non-availability of such information for them.
